Probability

AQA GCSE Maths

8 ready-made resources for teaching Probability, written for AQA GCSE Maths. Slides, worksheets, mark schemes, homework, an assessment and retrieval quizzes, all with SEN-friendly scaffolding built in as standard. Below is what the topic requires and where students usually go wrong, free to read whether or not you sign up.

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What is in this bundle

Assessment mark schemeWord, editable
End-of-topic assessmentWord, editable
HomeworkWord, editable
Retrieval-practice quizzesWord, editable
SlidesPowerPoint, editable
Starter & exit ticketWord, editable
Tiered worksheetWord, editable
Worksheet mark schemeWord, editable

Foundation tier

Calculate the probability of a single event using "favourable outcomes over total outcomes."
Use the fact that all probabilities for an event sum to 1 to find a missing probability.
Construct and use a sample space diagram for combined events.
Use a two-way table to calculate probabilities.
Estimate probability from relative frequency / experimental data.
Construct and use a probability tree diagram for combined events, applying the AND/OR rules for mutually exclusive and independent events.

Higher tier, in addition

Extend tree diagrams to dependent events and "without replacement" contexts, adjusting probabilities at each stage.
Solve problems involving conditional probability presented in context (without necessarily using formal notation).
Solve multi-step problems combining tree diagrams, algebra (e.g. unknowns representing items in a bag), and equation-solving.

Where students go wrong

Believing probabilities of independent events should be added rather than multiplied (the AND/multiply vs OR/add rule is frequently reversed).
Forgetting to adjust the total on the second branch of a tree diagram in "without replacement" problems.
Treating experimental (relative frequency) probability as identical to theoretical probability, rather than an estimate that improves with more trials.
Misreading rows versus columns when extracting totals from a two-way table.

How it gets asked in the exam

"Work out the probability that...", "Complete the tree diagram", "Find the probability of at least one...", "Show that the probabilities sum to 1".

Key vocabulary

Probability, outcome, event, sample space, mutually exclusive, independent, tree diagram, conditional, relative frequency, without replacement.

Assumed prior knowledge

Fluency with fractions, decimals, and percentages.
Basic logical understanding of AND/OR combinations.
Solving linear equations (Higher, for algebraic probability problems).

How Speca scaffolds this topic

A standardised, pre-drawn tree-diagram template removes the drawing/layout burden so students can focus on the probability values themselves.
Colour-code AND pathways versus OR pathways consistently across all worked examples, reinforcing the multiply/add distinction visually as well as verbally.
Use concrete, countable contexts (e.g. coloured counters in a bag) as the default model before moving to abstract, numbers-only questions.

Every file, free to start

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